[governance] California's presidential primary counts - F.Y.I.

[yehudakatz at mailinator.com]

* A comment about this article,
Please take a close look at this graphic
from the article:

http://www.mercurynews.com/portlet/article/html/imageDisplay.jsp?contentItemRelationshipId=1813569

Wouldn't it be nice if we had the ability to 'Poll-the-Field' and pull it up,
on all Icann decisions.

Shouldn't most Icann decisions be deemed as important as picking a President?

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Finally, California's presidential primary counts
By Mary Anne Ostrom
The Mercury News
mercurynews.com

Art. Ref.:
http://www.mercurynews.com/politics/ci_8155851

-

California voters Tuesday are going to do something they haven't done in more
than a generation: have a say in a closely contested presidential primary.

In the wake of the wildest week yet in the 2008 race, voters are expected to
come out in record numbers, and what they decide will help shape the final
stretch of one of the most intriguing primary seasons in decades.

As Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez put it, California's finally "got skin in
the game."

How long has it been since Californians have had a chance to truly influence a
primary race? On the Democratic side, it was California that gave George
McGovern the push he needed to secure the nomination.

That was 1972.

For Republicans, Californians kept Ronald Reagan's first presidential bid alive
in 1976, almost to the convention, where incumbent Gerald Ford prevailed.

California has always been a player in primaries when it comes to fundraising,
it's just that the election almost always happened too late in the season,
leaving voters to rubber-stamp an all-but-certain nominee or give a nod to a
California politician's futile bid.

Some argue you really have to go all the way back to the 1964 contest between
Barry Goldwater and Nelson Rockefeller, when California Republicans sided with
Goldwater, an Arizona senator, who became the GOP nominee.

With California's decision to move up its primary last year, the delegate-rich
state is sharing Feb. 5 with more 
than 20 other states. So it's unlikely the state alone will be able to claim
its voters crowned the nominees or stalled rivals' campaigns. And few are
certain when Tuesday's tallies from around the country are added up there even
will be a clear leader, particularly in the hugely competitive Democratic
contest.


Largest prize

California, with the most delegates at stake, is Tuesday's largest prize, and
even victory by a small margin will carry a lot 

"We finally have a vote that matters, even if it's not going to be the decisive
blow," said Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at
the University of California-Berkeley.

And it's about time, said Pat Backer, a San Jose State University engineering
professor who lives in Fremont. "I came here in 1990 and my vote has never
counted," the loyal Democratic primary voter said. "We're going to get to make
a difference."

And whatever happens Tuesday, California's results will be widely watched. In
primary politics, the state has gone from political wallflower to bellwether.

Talkingpointsmemo.com, a popular political Web site, handicaps the California
contest between Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama like this: "Make no
mistake. This will be the race to watch on Tuesday night."

That's exactly the role state leaders hoped for in May when they moved up the
primary to Feb. 5, the earliest primary in state history.

Well-financed Democratic candidates, in particular, have paid plenty of
attention to California. They've had campaign staffs here for months and, in
recent weeks, have mounted aggressive on-the-ground and media campaigns. With
the two final debates for each party held in Southern California last week,
candidates of both parties have made campaign stops from San Diego to San
Francisco within days of the election. Clinton was in San 

Jose as late as Friday, and Obama's wife, Michelle Obama, plans a town hall
meeting tonight in San Jose. It's a novelty, even for veterans.
"I turned on television and saw ads for primary candidates," said Darry Sragow,
a longtime Democratic political strategist in Los Angeles. "I can't remember
the last time that happened, if ever."

Not all traditions have been thrown overboard, however.

Early states like Iowa and New Hampshire had their usual outsize say. The
contests helped winnow the field to two viable candidates for each party before
California's turn. And Florida, which held its primary last week, could turn
out to be the kingmaker state for Republican John McCain, if he romps Tuesday.
But Mitt Romney is not giving up, making a last-ditch effort in California and
a few other key states.

This time, the possible roles California will have in the ultimate outcome are
numerous.


Kingmaker state?

Tuesday's vote could produce a clear leader in both parties, providing the
victor with a Western tail wind that would be hard to counter. Or, because of
the complex delegate counting system, it could produce enough delegates for
even the loser of the popular vote to stay in the race.

That's more likely to happen on the Democratic side. California polls suggest
Clinton and Obama are in an exceedingly tight contest, after a significant
surge of support for the Illinois senator in the past two weeks.

And it could send McCain, who has a comfortable lead over Romney, to the
nomination.

In 2000, California's March 7 primary came after nine other states held their
primaries or caucuses, and was held on the same day as 13 other contests.
California victories for Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore helped
them nail down the nominations, but both had fairly good leads before coming
into the election.

Regardless, the winners of California "can claim bragging rights to the biggest
state," said Tony Quinn, a Republican political analyst in Sacramento.

Until 1996, California held its primary in June. That year, the state, seeking
more influence, moved it to March. But it didn't work. A lot of other states
leapfrogged California. By the time the 2004 primary was held March 2, Democrat
John Kerry had picked up victories in 18 of 20 states. (President Bush had no
serious competition.) Fewer than 40 percent voted, a modern-era record low.

This time, competitive races have prompted predictions of the highest turnout
for a presidential primary since 1980. The state association of registrars says
to expect 56 percent of eligible voters to cast ballots; others estimate it
could be as high as 60 percent. Just once in the past six presidential
primaries have more than 50 percent of registered voters bothered to cast
ballots.

Voters are jazzed. Registration figures released Friday showed a record 15.7
million Californians - 68.5 percent of eligible adults - have registered to
vote in Tuesday's primary, 700,000 more than in advance of the 2004 primary. A
record 5.5 million have requested absentee ballots.


Turnout is key

And voter turnout will be crucial, especially in the tight Democratic race.
Clinton is counting on Latinos, Obama on young voters and those registered as
decline-to-state. The latter can only participate in the Democratic primary,
and they have an extra hurdle: When they go to the polls, they must request a
Democratic ballot.

"What makes this much more interesting is that both sides are relying on a
block of voters that don't always turn out," said Leon Panetta, a Clinton
supporter and founder of the Panetta Institute for Public Policy at California
State University-Monterey Bay. 

Cain said California's proportional system used by Democrats could favor Obama.
That's because congressional districts where he might do well, including
several in Northern California where he runs strongest, carry slightly more
weight than others. Bottom line: If it's a close Democratic contest in
California, the delegate-count margin between winner and loser may be tight.

The Republican contest is clearer. If Florida cemented McCain's front-runner
status, California, where the senator from Arizona is well-known, could put him
over the top.

Key endorsements last week, including by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and former
New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, has helped him solidify his lead in the state.
Even so, Romney is trying to pick off delegates in the state's more
conservative congressional districts. In each of the state's 53 districts, the
GOP winner gets three delegates. 

"John has the advantage," said Ken Khachigian, a veteran Republican campaign
manager, who ran Bob Dole's 1996 effort. But he added, "There are a lot of
people who still don't have a champion."

On the Democratic side, Panetta likened the excitement, especially among young
voters, to what he felt leading up to the epic and tragic 1968 Democratic
primary race in which Californians went to polls in droves and voted for Robert
F. Kennedy over Eugene McCarthy.

Just hours after winning the primary, Kennedy was assassinated in Los Angeles.

Again, young voters "could be the edge," Panetta said. "This one really counts.
We haven't for a long time."

--
Links:

Talkingpointsmemo.com
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/

Field Poll breakdown (Graphic)
http://www.mercurynews.com/portlet/article/html/imageDisplay.jsp?contentItemRelationshipId=1813569

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