Fwd: [NCSG-Discuss] [governance] RE: [bestbits] Rousseff & Chehade: Brazil will host world event on Internet governance in 2014

[William Drake]

Perhaps of interest

Begin forwarded message:

> From: William Drake <william.drake at uzh.ch>
> Subject: Re: [NCSG-Discuss] [governance] RE: [bestbits] Rousseff & Chehade: Brazil will host world event on Internet governance in 2014
> Date: October 19, 2013 9:36:14 AM GMT+08:00
> To: Milton L Mueller <mueller at SYR.EDU>
> Cc: NCSG-DISCUSS at LISTSERV.SYR.EDU
> 
> Hi Milton
> 
> On Oct 19, 2013, at 1:09 AM, Milton L Mueller <mueller at syr.edu> wrote:
> 
>> Therefore, I do not agree with more ambitious agendas - or at least, the more ambitious issues might be discussed, but only if we are able to develop and apply a workable solution to the more immediate and simpler problem (ICANN)
> 
> There's two problems with this.  First, Dilma wants to talk about a broader agenda, and many other governments have said the same for years in different ways.  Second, Fadi and the coalition he's coordinating with wants to talk about a broader agenda.  Both sides have made that clear recently, and are unlikely to be persuaded to the contrary ex ante by blogs etc.  Maybe if efforts to discuss the broader issues——the holes in the gov architecture that CS has been noting since 2003—hit a road block they'll collapse back to something narrowly focused on ICANN, but I wouldn't presume it a this point.
> 
> We're all in blue skies guessing land as to where this will go, and absent clear info a number of folks have been projecting their preferred narratives onto the space.  So I will too.  I start from the assumption we should listen to what the powers that be have been saying for quite some time.  And what I've heard for quite some time now, is
> 
> 1. A change in the AoC that removes or alters the USG roles to be at best a 'first among equals' in some sense, with greater encouragement to the GAC to step up.  This has been US policy, so its adoption is not quite "the world turns its back on USG" and so.  Question of timing and dynamics—Snowden revelations obviously accelerated things in a wild card way that was not envisioned or desired.
> 
> 2. A parallel change to the USG role in the IANA contract cutting ICANN looser and spinning toward GAC oversight.
> 
> 3.  Consideration of some sort of new multistakeholder process for orphaned issues etc.  This could prove the hardest, as one assumes G77 and China will still want a UN basis, which wouldn't be congenial to I-orgs et al.  
> 
> The first two pieces are easy enough to imagine, although they will be difficult for the USG to sell domestically.  Obama hardly needs the Tea Party and libertarian/conservative think tanks running around hyperventilating about him being the "man who gave away the Internet" at this moment, especially before the mid-term elections.  And there'd have to be a lot of hand holding viz. Versign and other contracted parties, major corporate users, US agencies, and nervous allies, to assure them nothing's seriously changed re: stability and security.
> 
> The third one's anyone's guess.  No new IGOs has been the mantra.  CSTD is obviously too feeble to be of any use.  So something else that can pass muster with governments—?  And obviously, there can't be ICANN mission creep here, although there will probably be Fadi creep…ICANN will have to be a supportive partner in some manner.  I'd have preferred appending a working group mechanism to the IGF to strengthen its' role, but a lot of people remain fixed on preserving its pristine status as a dialogue space full stop given the no-membership problem etc.
> 
> There's also talk, e.g. Dilma, about some new multilateral overlay on certain issues.  That too would run into standard UN divisions unless it's a pretty generic statement of principles.  This could make Wolfgang's Focus Session on Principles, as well as the first FC led by Brazil, particularly interesting.
> 
> Cheers
> 
> Bill

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