[governance] FW: [Dewayne-Net] REINHART AND ROGOFF: 'Full Stop,' We Made A Microsoft Excel Blunder In Our Debt Study, And It Makes A Difference

[michael gurstein]

Ah yes, the "science" of Economics... and the extremely deleterious policy
(and ultimately human) impact that has accompanied their hubris...
 
M

-----Original Message-----
From: dewayne-net at warpspeed.com [mailto:dewayne-net at warpspeed.com] On Behalf
Of Dewayne Hendricks
Sent: Wednesday, April 17, 2013 1:06 PM
To: Multiple recipients of Dewayne-Net
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] REINHART AND ROGOFF: 'Full Stop,' We Made A Microsoft
Excel Blunder In Our Debt Study, And It Makes A Difference

[Note:  This item comes from reader Geoff Goodfellow.  DLH]

From: the keyboard of geoff goodfellow <geoff at iconia.com>
Subject: REINHART AND ROGOFF: 'Full Stop,' We Made A Microsoft Excel Blunder
In Our Debt Study, And It Makes A Difference
Date: April 17, 2013 12:00:20 PM PDT
To: Dave Farber <dave at farber.net>, Dewayne Hendricks
<dewayne at warpspeed.com>, risks at csl.sri.com

REINHART AND ROGOFF: 'Full Stop,' We Made A Microsoft Excel Blunder In Our
Debt Study, And It Makes A Difference By Joe Weisenthal Apr. 17, 2013, 7:42
AM
<http://www.businessinsider.com/reinhart-and-rogoff-admit-excel-blunder-2013
-4>

The big talk in the world of economics continues to be the famous study by
Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff, which claimed that as countries see debt/GDP
going above 90%, growth slows dramatically.

Economists have always been skeptical of the correlation/causality on this.

But yesterday, a new study emerged which claimed that Reinhart and Rogoff
used a faulty dataset to make that claim and (most stunningly) had an excel
error that exacerbated the growth dropoff for countries with debt/GDP higher
than 90%.

After the report dropped (and proceeded to blow up the internet), Reinhart
and Rogoff rushed out a quick statement claiming that the new study (which
was done by some UMass professors) supported their thesis that growth slowed
as debt to GDP got higher. And Reinhart and Rogoff were quick to reiterate
that even they weren't necessarily implying causation on this (which may be
true, but the fact that they say this is not well known to the politicians
who are always citing the dreaded 90% level).

But in a new response, Reinhart and Rogoff admit they did make an Excel
blunder, and that it mattered!

Here's the key part:

[snip]

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