[governance] ITU Broadband Commission

[Roland Perry]

In message <1224825707.165251.1333661605393.JavaMail.www at wwinf1j31>, at 
23:33:25 on Thu, 5 Apr 2012, Jean-Louis FULLSACK <jlfullsack at orange.fr> 
writes
>Many thanks Roland for this explanation.
>
>but I'm still wondering WHY "four times faster" ? Is there a 
>mathematical or/and physical rationale for demonstrating the factor 
>"four".

At the time it was said, with come justification, that backbone 
connectivity demand was doubling every 100 days. Customer numbers were 
increasing almost as fast. Investment cycles were very short (as soon as 
one set of equipment was installed you were looking for the next set). 
Companies were going back to their investors, suppliers and customers 
much more often than in traditional industries.

And what we now call "Internet Governance" seemed to demand a cycle of 
multiple meetings a year, rather than the traditional annual meetings in 
other industries.

As a back-of-the envelope calculation, the appropriate multiplier for 
this higher-than-normal rate of activity was somewhere between three and 
four.

>I exclude the economical rationale because the "Internet bubble" 
>invalidate it

The increased activity was driven very much by the economics of *demand* 
which continued to rise dramatically. The problem with the "bubble" was 
chronic over-supply of certain kinds of connectivity, plus an inability 
of many content-development projects to actually deliver (it seems you 
can't make software writers work four times faster, however hard you 
try), and hence pay back their investors.
-- 
Roland Perry

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