[governance] Predictions for DNS 2010: Google ISP DNS vs. Microsoft OpenDNS

[Yehuda Katz]

Predictions for DNS 2010
by Allen Stern on December 3rd, 2009 

Art.Ref.:
http://www.centernetworks.com/predictions-for-google-dns-2010

This morning Google announced the launch of Google DNS. Most of the early posts
I read didn’t mention that this is a great way for Google to know EVERYTHING
that you do online. Back in 2007, James Thomas attempted to use the Web without
ever touching a Google service. He was able to do it for a short bit but
eventually gave in. In late 2007, I took a look at just how much Google knew
about you. Last year I updated the post to note that Google even knows where I
am.

What Google DNS will do is basically sit between your computer and the computer
you want to reach. When we type in “moo.com”, a computer has to translate
that to computer-speak and then send us on our way to the computer that holds
the moo.com files. This middle-man computer is called a DNS 0r domain name
server.

Google says they can do DNS faster than anyone else and that since we all want
to load webpages very fast, people will want to switch.

Jesse Stay says that DNS will become the new browser war and compares today’s
announcement to the fight between Netscape and Microsoft. Steve Rubel says that
the Google DNS is all about ads. You might be wondering why Steve says that
this is an ad-play. It’s simple. Using my example above with moo.com, let’s
say you accidentally type in “moopiet29595.com”. Since there is no website
at that address, the DNS server is lost out there in cyberspace. When that
happens, most DNS servers will reroute you to a page that typically is a search
page with search results that match the name you typed in plus ads.

OpenDNS, the popular DNS service, has a post that discusses the Google DNS
launch. It’s worth a read.

Based on today’s announcement, here are my top two predictions for 2010 with
regards to DNS.

Google Will Own ISP DNS
It’s simple – most Internet providers will outsource their DNS functions to
Google. I predict that this will happen by the end of June 2010. Google has the
cash and will make it super sweet for the ISPs to switch. This will also help
Google take the main market share for DNS. Changing your DNS servers on your
computer is not that easy and most Internet users will never do it. But if
Google partners with say Comcast or Time Warner, they can make the change at
the server level and it will be done automatically. The ISPs get major cash,
Google gets the overwhelming share of the DNS function and users never know
anything changed.

For years I thought Google would acquire the big ISPs. Now they have no need to
– just take over the DNS and they get control without having to deal with the
other ISP operations (e.g. billing, customer service, etc.)

Microsoft Will Acquire OpenDNS
If we go with Jesse’s argument above that DNS will be the warzone for
position next year, Microsoft will want a hand in the pot. OpenDNS won’t be
able to resist the bucket of cash that Microsoft will bring. At that point,
Microsoft will go after the partnerships I noted above that Google will most
likely make. And Jesse will be right – it will be a bloodbath.

I can’t tell you whether to switch to Google DNS or not. The bottom line is
that Google knows just about everything you do online already. So much so that
in the promo for a show tonight on CNBC where Maria Bartiromo will interview
Google employees, the only promo they are airing features Maria saying “just
how much does Google know about me?”

Is today’s announcement a bad thing — I can’t answer that question but my
guess is that once the government gets past the health care issues, they may
just come knocking. Google has nothing to worry about for now though because
the health care debate will take us into 2014. I’d love to get a reaction
from the President’s CTO and tech team.

If you decide to setup Google DNS, Amit has a great post with videos on how to
make the switch. And if you decide to switch, leave a comment with your
reasoning for switching.

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