<div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Dear colleagues,</div><div class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></div><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr"><div class="gmail_quote"><div dir="ltr"><div dir="ltr"><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">In view of Wednesday's summit, <span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">this article by Diplo Executive Director Jovan Kurbalija</span> <span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">may be of interest</span>. <span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">It</span> deals with the possibilities of the meeting leading to a cyber detente, or the start of one. </div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Link: <a href="https://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/cyber-detente-geneva-can-biden-and-putin-ease-cyber-tensions" target="_blank">https://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/cyber-detente-geneva-can-biden-and-putin-ease-cyber-tensions</a></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">The text is right below this email.</div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">All the best,</span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><span class="gmail_default" style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif">Stephanie</span></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><br></div><div style="font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif"><h1 style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;font-size:40px;font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-weight:normal;line-height:1.3;color:rgb(51,51,51);padding:0px;outline:none">Cyber détente in Geneva: Can Biden and Putin ease cyber tensions?</h1><div>JOVAN KURBALIJA</div><div><br></div><div><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">Despite the recent cyberattacks on SolarWinds, the Colonial Pipeline, and the meat producer JBS, there is plenty of room for optimism for a cyber deal at the upcoming summit in Geneva between US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin. It could very well slow down – if not bring to an end – the cyber tensions between the two countries.</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">The Biden–Putin summit could also turn the page from these protracted hostilities towards a more stable and cooperative global digital policy with the active participation of governments, businesses, and civil society worldwide.</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none"><img alt="The 16 June Biden-Putin summit and what it means for the US-Russia cyber relations" src="https://www.diplomacy.edu/sites/default/files/inline-images/Cyber%20detante%20logo%20campaign.jpeg" width="2048" height="2471" style="box-sizing:border-box;border:0px;zoom:1;vertical-align:middle;max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:5px;outline:none"></p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">There are three main reasons for this cyber optimism ahead of the summit in Geneva.</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">First, while the attacks have taken up all the headlines on cyberspace, <strong style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">the two countries have been cooperating on several fronts via multilateral processes</strong>. In March, <a href="https://www.diplomacy.edu/blog/new-landmark-global-cybersecurity-negotiations-un-cyber-oewg-numbers" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">they both endorsed the report of the UN Open-Ended Working Group on Cybersecurity</u></a>, and just last week, the report of <a href="https://dig.watch/processes/un-gge" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">the UN Group of Governmental Experts</u></a>. Russia and the USA both agreed to develop a more predictable global cybersecurity regime built on 11 norms on how governments should behave in cyberspace and on cooperative measures to address cyberthreats. </p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">Even at the highly divisive e-commerce negotiations at the World Trade Organization (WTO), Russia and the USA belong to the same group of countries that are arguing for new e-commerce rules. </p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">Second, <strong style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">a ‘cyber hotline’ between Washington and Moscow</strong> is now open as the two countries directly address recent cyber incidents, according to the <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2021/06/01/press-gaggle-by-principal-deputy-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-aboard-air-force-one-en-route-tulsa-ok/" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">White House </u></a>and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57318965" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ribakov</u></a>.</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">Third, in the past two months, we have seen <strong style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">a shift both in rhetoric and actions.</strong> The animosity between the two countries only grew as the US security apparatus <a href="https://www.nsa.gov/News-Features/Feature-Stories/Article-View/Article/2573391/russian-foreign-intelligence-service-exploiting-five-publicly-known-vulnerabili/" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">officially attributed </u></a>the SolarWinds cyberattacks to the Russian government. President Biden issued an <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/04/15/executive-order-on-blocking-property-with-respect-to-specified-harmful-foreign-activities-of-the-government-of-the-russian-federation/" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">Executive Order</u></a> sanctioning <a href="https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0127" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">40 Russian individuals and companies</u></a> over their involvement in the SolarWinds cyberattack. </p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">But US rhetoric has softened recently. After <a href="https://dig.watch/updates/ransomware-attack-colonial-pipeline" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">the Colonial Pipeline attack</u></a> in May, Biden emphasised that the attack was launched by a <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/553386-biden-says-colonial-pipeline-hackers-based-in-russia-but-not-government" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">Russian group, rather than by the Russian government</u></a>. Last week saw a further de-escalation of rhetoric as US officials focused on cooperating with Russian authorities while dealing with the JBS cyberattack. Russia was not mentioned explicitly in what were otherwise tough statements on cybersecurity by US Commerce Secretary <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/commerce-secretary-gina-raimondo-hardwire-deadline-infrastructure-deal/story?id=78105983" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">Gina Raimondo</u></a>, Energy Secretary <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/06/politics/us-power-grid-jennifer-granholm-cnntv/index.html" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">Jennifer Granholm</u></a>, and Transportation Secretary <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-pete-buttigieg-face-the-nation-06-06-2021/" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">Pete Buttigieg</u></a>.</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">All in all, the stage for a cyber détente between the two countries has been set. In addition to bilateral cooperation, they can also engage into more effective multilateralism by taking <strong style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">the ‘ready-to-use’ confidence-building measures of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)</strong> out of the ‘diplomatic fridge’. On a global level, Russia and the USA could accelerate the UN process towards<strong style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none"> a Cybersecurity Compact </strong>that should regulate the current cyber arms race, with at least <a href="https://dig.watch/processes/un-gge#view-7541-2" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;background:transparent;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none" target="_blank"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">50 countries </u></a>that already have or are close to having offensive cyber capabilities. The two countries can also strengthen coordination in the fight against cybercrime, currently underway in two separate tracks: (a) the USA-led approach to globalise the ratification of the Budapest Convention on Cybercrime, and (b) the Russian-led quest for a new UN cybercrime convention. </p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">Further along  this cyber journey, Russia and the USA should anchor cybersecurity in <strong style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">a wider digital agenda </strong>covering e-commerce, human rights, development, standardisation, and other policy issues. For example, e-commerce regulations cannot be effective without addressing standardisation, data, privacy, and security perspectives. The tech sector needs to provide details on cyber components and services to their governments for drawing up a global cyber-harmonised nomenclature system, the basis of the global trading system. Russia will have additional incentives towards developing a holistic approach to global digital policy as it will be hosting the Internet Governance Forum (IGF) in 2025, a landmark global gathering that addresses digital issues in a cross-cutting way.</p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">Although there are several reasons to feel optimistic about the Geneva summit, <strong style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">caution is still advised as cyber issues are not – and cannot be – treated in isolation.</strong> Cyber issues are a part of a wider agenda between the two countries, ranging from nuclear weapons to the situation in and around Ukraine, relations with China, human rights, the Middle East, and so on. </p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">For the USA, cyber issues will feature prominently on the Geneva summit agenda. As the US society is highly dependent on digital technologies, cyber stability will increase the security of critical infrastructures domestically and support the economic interests of Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and other tech companies internationally. </p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none">While the outcome of the Geneva negotiations will be <strong style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">the result of complex trade-offs</strong>, it is certain that fewer cyber tensions and more digital cooperation would be greatly beneficial to the modern world. Through a cyber détente, Biden and Putin can make an important contribution to global cyber stability and overall digital development. </p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none"><strong style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">Many times in history, on the shores of Geneva’s Lake Leman, diplomacy and cooperation prevailed over war and conflict. Next week, there’s reason to hope that history will repeat itself in the cyber realm.</strong></p><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none"><strong style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none"><br></strong></p><hr style="box-sizing:content-box;border-right:0px;border-bottom:0px none;border-left:0px;border-top-style:solid;border-top-color:rgba(0,0,0,0.1);zoom:1;height:0px;margin:20px 0px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none"><p style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;margin:0px 0px 22px;color:rgb(51,51,51);font-family:"Nunito Sans",sans-serif;font-size:18px;outline:none"><em style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">For more context on the possibilities of a cyber detente, and the cyber relations between the USA and Russia over the years, read the Geneva Internet Platform’s analysis at </em><a href="https://dig.watch/trends/cyber-detente" rel="noopener" target="_blank" style="background:transparent;box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;color:rgb(0,129,145);text-decoration-line:none;outline:none"><em style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none"><u style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none">https://dig.watch/trends/cyber-detente</u></em></a><em style="box-sizing:border-box;border-color:rgb(225,225,225);border-style:solid;border-width:0px;zoom:1;outline:none"> </em><br></p></div></div>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