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    <div class="moz-cite-prefix">thanks  MG<br>
      <br>
      The article says - "<span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">They

        offer no particular policy suggestions to remedy this cataclysm,
        save that “high-skill and high-wage” jobs are the least likely
        to be swept away and that workers, accordingly, need “to acquire
        creative and social skills” that computers are unlikely to
        master until a more distant time".<br>
        <br>
        However I am doubtful if the number of such high skilled or
        creative jobs will anywhere increase to offset the decrease in
        the other jobs... this is a serious issue<br>
        <br>
        Of course automation was thought of at sometime also as a
        blessing - that we all can work lesser...but whether it will
        actually bring about that happy situation where we all get more
        time for 'leisure' pursuits or a situation where many are
        fighting for economic survival (while the rich get richer and
        richer) is something for society to decide...only by perhaps
        democratic processes... <br>
        <br>
        Guru<o:p></o:p></span>
      <div>
        <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
      </div>
      <br>
      <br>
      <br>
      <br>
      <br>
      On 03/28/2014 09:40 PM, michael gurstein wrote:<br>
    </div>
    <blockquote cite="mid:076401cf4aa0$355f1400$a01d3c00$@gmail.com"
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        <p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Garamond","serif";color:#1F497D">While
            this article is highly focused on the situation in the US,
            these are among the issues which will very soon (or even
            now) need to be discussed in the context of Global
            (Internet) Governance. The question is, is MSism an
            appropriate method for responding to issues of social
            justice such as this.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
        <p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p>
        <p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">M<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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style="font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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style="font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Garamond","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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          <div>
            <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><img
                  moz-do-not-send="true" id="_x0000_i1025"
src="http://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/WashingtonPost/Content/Staff-Bio/Images/harold-meyerson-114x80.png"
                  alt="Harold Meyerson"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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          <div>
            <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:22.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#333333"><a
                  moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/harold-meyerson/2011/02/24/ABvsvmP_page.html"
                  target="_blank"><span
                    style="color:black;text-decoration:none">Harold
                    Meyerson</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
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              style="margin-left:.5in;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">Opinion
                Writer<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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        <h1 style="background:white"><span
            class="yiv0727618057entry-title"><span
style="font-size:35.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">The
              coming job apocalypse</span></span><span
style="font-size:35.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
        <div style="border:none;border-bottom:solid #E1E1E1
          1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in">
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                level1 lfo1"><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#333333">By </span></b><span
                  class="yiv0727618057author"><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#666666"><a
                        moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/harold-meyerson/2011/02/24/ABvsvmP_page.html"
                        target="_blank"><span
                          style="color:black;text-decoration:none">Harold
                          Meyerson</span></a></span></b></span><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#333333">, </span></b><span
                  class="yiv0727618057timestamp"><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#6E6E6E">Published:
                      March 26</span></b></span><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#333333"> </span></b><span
style="font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""><a
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href="mailto:meyersonh@washpost.com?subject=Reader%20feedback%20for%20%27The%20coming%20job%20apocalypse%20%27"
                    target="_blank"
                    id="yiv0727618057be1b6fb570-77d0-48b7-8608-b047f64c397b"><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;color:#3A6A9A;background:white;text-decoration:none">E-mail
                        the writer</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></li>
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            <div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">As
                    a general rule, more Americans work than do the
                    citizens of other advanced economies. Since the late
                    1970s, when the number of women in the workforce
                    ballooned, the share of Americans who either had
                    jobs or were trying to get one was greater than the
                    share of comparable Europeans. For reasons good and
                    bad — the higher availability of jobs, the need to
                    bolster stagnating incomes, the linkage of jobs to
                    health insurance — Americans worked like the
                    dickens.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">But
                    that general rule may be changing. The percentage of
                    working-age adults in the U.S. labor force began to
                    decline in 2000, when it reached a peak of 67
                    percent. As of last month, it was down to <a
                      moz-do-not-send="true"
                      href="http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000"
                      target="_blank"><span
                        style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">63
                        percent</span></a>, which is <a
                      moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4c2993c6-b342-11e3-b891-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2x5pFuXbK"
                      target="_blank"><span
                        style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">lower
                        than the level in the United Kingdom</span></a>.
                    Not since the late 1970s has Britain had a higher
                    share of workforce participants than the United
                    States.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
            </div>
            <div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">Part
                    of this decline is because of the retirement of
                    aging boomers, but that explanation goes only so
                    far. It doesn’t explain, for instance, why the
                    workforce participation of Americans ages 25 to 34
                    has declined from 83.3 percent to 81.8 percent since
                    2007, as the Financial Times reported this week.
                    Worse yet, the number of hours that working
                    Americans are on the job is in decline, too. In the
                    past six months, according to Bureau of Labor
                    Statistics data, the <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304250204579433442474053878"
                      target="_blank"><span
                        style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">average
                        workweek has shrunk</span></a> from 34.5 hours
                    to 34.2</span><span
                    style="font-size:11.5pt;color:black"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">hours
                  </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">—</span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">
                    even as the official unemployment rate has dropped.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">Anti-Obama
                    partisans blame the president and his policies for
                    the dwindling workforce, but the decline began in
                    the last year of Bill Clinton’s presidency and
                    continued through much of the presidency of George
                    W. Bush. Clearly, either bipartisan public policy or
                    something more fundamental than public policy is to
                    blame.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">The
                    bipartisan public policy that should raise the most
                    suspicion is trade policy, which fostered the
                    offshoring of <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.epi.org/publication/bp345-china-growing-trade-deficit-cost/"
                      target="_blank"><span
                        style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">more
                        than 2 million manufacturing jobs</span></a> after
                    Congress normalized trade relations with China in
                    2000. But an even more fundamental factor in the
                    declining share of working Americans is the
                    technological automation that has eliminated
                    millions of jobs and is poised to eliminate millions
                    more.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">The
                    mechanization of work has already taken a toll in
                    the nation’s ports (where cranes have <a
                      moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/harold-meyerson-averted-port-strike-holds-lessons-for-all-workers/2013/01/01/3befd548-5393-11e2-bf3e-76c0a789346f_story.html"
                      target="_blank"><span
                        style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">reduced
                        the longshore workforce</span></a> to roughly 10</span><span
                    style="font-size:11.5pt;color:black"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">percent
                    of its size 60 years ago), factories (where machines
                    and computers have substituted for millions of
                    workers), construction sites (where the
                    prefabrication of parts has<a moz-do-not-send="true"
                      href="http://prospect.org/article/work-history-0"
                      target="_blank"><span
                        style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">reduced
                        the number of construction workers</span></a> )
                    and offices (whatever became of secretaries?). And
                    with increasing computing capacity steadily
                    expanding the abilities of machines, we ain’t seen
                    nothing yet.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">In
                    a <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf"
                      target="_blank"><span
                        style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">paper</span></a> they
                    wrote last year, Carl Benedikt Frey of Oxford
                    University’s Program on the Impacts of Future
                    Technology, and Michael A. Osborn, an Oxford
                    engineering professor, broke down the U.S. economy
                    into 702 distinct occupations and classified those
                    occupations by the probability of their
                    computerization over the next few decades. They
                    concluded that 47</span><span
                    style="font-size:11.5pt;color:black"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">percent
                    of U.S. workers have a high probability of seeing
                    their jobs automated over the next 20</span><span
                    style="font-size:11.5pt;color:black"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">years,
                    including in transportation (where the <a
                      moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.google.com/about/careers/lifeatgoogle/self-driving-car-test-steve-mahan.html"
                      target="_blank"><span
                        style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">driverless
                        car has become a reality</span></a>),
                    manufacturing and retail sales. They offer no
                    particular policy suggestions to remedy this
                    cataclysm, save that “high-skill and high-wage” jobs
                    are the least likely to be swept away and that
                    workers, accordingly, need “to acquire creative and
                    social skills” that computers are unlikely to master
                    until a more distant time.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">Frey
                    and Osborne acknowledge that there is a lot of
                    speculation encoded in their equations. But even if
                    they’re half right, or just a third right, that
                    would mean that 23.5</span><span
                    style="font-size:11.5pt;color:black"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">percent
                    or 15.7 percent, respectively, of U.S. workers face
                    a future of employment extermination. I doubt that
                    the mass acquisition of creative and social skills
                    is sufficient to meet this challenge. The way to
                    deal with such a job apocalypse would begin with the
                    very measures that we have failed to enact to combat
                    the cyclical downturn that began in 2008: a massive
                    government program to build and repair our
                    infrastructure and to provide the preschool
                    education and elder care that the nation needs,
                    which would increase consumption and economic
                    activity generally.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
              </div>
              <div>
                <p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">Eventually,
                    however, as computers pick up more and more skills,
                    we will have to embrace the necessity of
                    redistributing wealth and income from the shrinking
                    number of Americans who have sizable incomes from
                    their investments or their work to the growing
                    number of Americans who want work but can’t find it.
                    That may or may not be socialism; certainly, it’s
                    survival.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
              </div>
            </div>
          </div>
        </div>
        <p class="MsoNormal"
          style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span
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