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<div class="moz-cite-prefix">thanks MG<br>
<br>
The article says - "<span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">They
offer no particular policy suggestions to remedy this cataclysm,
save that “high-skill and high-wage” jobs are the least likely
to be swept away and that workers, accordingly, need “to acquire
creative and social skills” that computers are unlikely to
master until a more distant time".<br>
<br>
However I am doubtful if the number of such high skilled or
creative jobs will anywhere increase to offset the decrease in
the other jobs... this is a serious issue<br>
<br>
Of course automation was thought of at sometime also as a
blessing - that we all can work lesser...but whether it will
actually bring about that happy situation where we all get more
time for 'leisure' pursuits or a situation where many are
fighting for economic survival (while the rich get richer and
richer) is something for society to decide...only by perhaps
democratic processes... <br>
<br>
Guru<o:p></o:p></span>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
On 03/28/2014 09:40 PM, michael gurstein wrote:<br>
</div>
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<div class="WordSection1">
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Garamond","serif";color:#1F497D">While
this article is highly focused on the situation in the US,
these are among the issues which will very soon (or even
now) need to be discussed in the context of Global
(Internet) Governance. The question is, is MSism an
appropriate method for responding to issues of social
justice such as this.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><b><i><span
style="font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D">M<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span
style="font-size:14.5pt;font-family:"Garamond","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div style="margin-bottom:11.25pt;background-attachment:scroll">
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><img
moz-do-not-send="true" id="_x0000_i1025"
src="http://www.washingtonpost.com/rw/WashingtonPost/Content/Staff-Bio/Images/harold-meyerson-114x80.png"
alt="Harold Meyerson"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:22.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#333333"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/harold-meyerson/2011/02/24/ABvsvmP_page.html"
target="_blank"><span
style="color:black;text-decoration:none">Harold
Meyerson</span></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"
style="margin-left:.5in;background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">Opinion
Writer<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<h1 style="background:white"><span
class="yiv0727618057entry-title"><span
style="font-size:35.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">The
coming job apocalypse</span></span><span
style="font-size:35.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p></o:p></span></h1>
<div style="border:none;border-bottom:solid #E1E1E1
1.0pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 0in">
<div style="margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt">
<ul type="disc">
<li class="MsoNormal"
style="color:black;mso-margin-top-alt:auto;mso-margin-bottom-alt:auto;text-align:center;mso-list:l0
level1 lfo1"><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#333333">By </span></b><span
class="yiv0727618057author"><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#666666"><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/harold-meyerson/2011/02/24/ABvsvmP_page.html"
target="_blank"><span
style="color:black;text-decoration:none">Harold
Meyerson</span></a></span></b></span><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#333333">, </span></b><span
class="yiv0727618057timestamp"><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#6E6E6E">Published:
March 26</span></b></span><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:#333333"> </span></b><span
style="font-size:7.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif""><a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="mailto:meyersonh@washpost.com?subject=Reader%20feedback%20for%20%27The%20coming%20job%20apocalypse%20%27"
target="_blank"
id="yiv0727618057be1b6fb570-77d0-48b7-8608-b047f64c397b"><b><span
style="font-size:9.0pt;color:#3A6A9A;background:white;text-decoration:none">E-mail
the writer</span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div id="yiv0727618057article">
<div id="yiv0727618057article_body">
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">As
a general rule, more Americans work than do the
citizens of other advanced economies. Since the late
1970s, when the number of women in the workforce
ballooned, the share of Americans who either had
jobs or were trying to get one was greater than the
share of comparable Europeans. For reasons good and
bad — the higher availability of jobs, the need to
bolster stagnating incomes, the linkage of jobs to
health insurance — Americans worked like the
dickens.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">But
that general rule may be changing. The percentage of
working-age adults in the U.S. labor force began to
decline in 2000, when it reached a peak of 67
percent. As of last month, it was down to <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000"
target="_blank"><span
style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">63
percent</span></a>, which is <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4c2993c6-b342-11e3-b891-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2x5pFuXbK"
target="_blank"><span
style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">lower
than the level in the United Kingdom</span></a>.
Not since the late 1970s has Britain had a higher
share of workforce participants than the United
States.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">Part
of this decline is because of the retirement of
aging boomers, but that explanation goes only so
far. It doesn’t explain, for instance, why the
workforce participation of Americans ages 25 to 34
has declined from 83.3 percent to 81.8 percent since
2007, as the Financial Times reported this week.
Worse yet, the number of hours that working
Americans are on the job is in decline, too. In the
past six months, according to Bureau of Labor
Statistics data, the <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304250204579433442474053878"
target="_blank"><span
style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">average
workweek has shrunk</span></a> from 34.5 hours
to 34.2</span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;color:black"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">hours
</span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">—</span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">
even as the official unemployment rate has dropped.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">Anti-Obama
partisans blame the president and his policies for
the dwindling workforce, but the decline began in
the last year of Bill Clinton’s presidency and
continued through much of the presidency of George
W. Bush. Clearly, either bipartisan public policy or
something more fundamental than public policy is to
blame.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">The
bipartisan public policy that should raise the most
suspicion is trade policy, which fostered the
offshoring of <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.epi.org/publication/bp345-china-growing-trade-deficit-cost/"
target="_blank"><span
style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">more
than 2 million manufacturing jobs</span></a> after
Congress normalized trade relations with China in
2000. But an even more fundamental factor in the
declining share of working Americans is the
technological automation that has eliminated
millions of jobs and is poised to eliminate millions
more.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">The
mechanization of work has already taken a toll in
the nation’s ports (where cranes have <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/harold-meyerson-averted-port-strike-holds-lessons-for-all-workers/2013/01/01/3befd548-5393-11e2-bf3e-76c0a789346f_story.html"
target="_blank"><span
style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">reduced
the longshore workforce</span></a> to roughly 10</span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;color:black"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">percent
of its size 60 years ago), factories (where machines
and computers have substituted for millions of
workers), construction sites (where the
prefabrication of parts has<a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://prospect.org/article/work-history-0"
target="_blank"><span
style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">reduced
the number of construction workers</span></a> )
and offices (whatever became of secretaries?). And
with increasing computing capacity steadily
expanding the abilities of machines, we ain’t seen
nothing yet.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">In
a <a moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The_Future_of_Employment.pdf"
target="_blank"><span
style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">paper</span></a> they
wrote last year, Carl Benedikt Frey of Oxford
University’s Program on the Impacts of Future
Technology, and Michael A. Osborn, an Oxford
engineering professor, broke down the U.S. economy
into 702 distinct occupations and classified those
occupations by the probability of their
computerization over the next few decades. They
concluded that 47</span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;color:black"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">percent
of U.S. workers have a high probability of seeing
their jobs automated over the next 20</span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;color:black"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">years,
including in transportation (where the <a
moz-do-not-send="true"
href="http://www.google.com/about/careers/lifeatgoogle/self-driving-car-test-steve-mahan.html"
target="_blank"><span
style="color:#005B88;text-decoration:none">driverless
car has become a reality</span></a>),
manufacturing and retail sales. They offer no
particular policy suggestions to remedy this
cataclysm, save that “high-skill and high-wage” jobs
are the least likely to be swept away and that
workers, accordingly, need “to acquire creative and
social skills” that computers are unlikely to master
until a more distant time.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">Frey
and Osborne acknowledge that there is a lot of
speculation encoded in their equations. But even if
they’re half right, or just a third right, that
would mean that 23.5</span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;color:black"> </span><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">percent
or 15.7 percent, respectively, of U.S. workers face
a future of employment extermination. I doubt that
the mass acquisition of creative and social skills
is sufficient to meet this challenge. The way to
deal with such a job apocalypse would begin with the
very measures that we have failed to enact to combat
the cyclical downturn that began in 2008: a massive
government program to build and repair our
infrastructure and to provide the preschool
education and elder care that the nation needs,
which would increase consumption and economic
activity generally.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background:white"><span
style="font-size:11.5pt;font-family:"Georgia","serif";color:black">Eventually,
however, as computers pick up more and more skills,
we will have to embrace the necessity of
redistributing wealth and income from the shrinking
number of Americans who have sizable incomes from
their investments or their work to the growing
number of Americans who want work but can’t find it.
That may or may not be socialism; certainly, it’s
survival.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
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style="margin-bottom:12.0pt;background:white"><span
style="font-family:"Helvetica","sans-serif";color:black"><o:p> </o:p></span></p>
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