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</o:shapelayout></xml><![endif]--></head><body lang=EN-US link=blue vlink=purple><div class=WordSection1><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Thanks Milton, I have some limited knowledge of that literature. The problem is, as per the abstract you quoted, in the real world the issue isn't just with "the effects of privatization, competition, and regulation on <b><u>telecommunications performance</u></b> (my emphasis)" where I have no doubt their (and your) conclusions/assumptions would be borne out. Rather it is with the somewhat more complex world of how to achieve non-telecommunications benefits among those for example who are really very far away from the closest exchange or cell tower and whether achieving the benefits that you (and they) are pointing to, are, in the broad scope of requirements for national policies for development (and in some cases even for survival) worth the costs in terms of foregone revenues and means for a variety of policy and other governmental intervention.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Honestly, I don't know the answer but simply quoting studies of the impacts/benefits of privatization without a parallel examination of the broader socio-political and economic costs doesn't I'm afraid, take us very far.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Best,<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>M<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext'>From:</span></b><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif";color:windowtext'> Milton L Mueller [mailto:mueller@syr.edu] <br><b>Sent:</b> Saturday, October 13, 2012 1:45 AM<br><b>To:</b> michael gurstein; governance@lists.igcaucus.org<br><b>Subject:</b> RE: [governance] The ITU/WCIT: Thinking About Internet Regulatory Policy From An LDC Perspective?</span><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>Michael<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>There is a vast literature on telecommunications liberalization and privatization’s effects. If you have not seen evidence to back up the arguments about the effects, it is not because it doesn’t exist. Here are some samples:<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>The Impact of Privatization and Competition in the Telecommunications Sector Around the World <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=364140">http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=364140</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>Telecommunications Liberalization on Two Sides of the Atlantic<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><a href="http://muse.jhu.edu/books/9780815798781">http://muse.jhu.edu/books/9780815798781</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>The institutional environment and effects of telecommunication privatization and market liberalization in Asia <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308596100000665">http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308596100000665</a> <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>The productivity effects of the liberalization of Japanese telecommunication policy <a href="http://www.springerlink.com/content/r48142651763j8hv/">http://www.springerlink.com/content/r48142651763j8hv/</a><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>I include the abstract from this article, which summarizes the consensus of much of this research <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>An Econometric Analysis of Telecom Competition, Privatization, and Regulation in Africa and Latin America. <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>The Journal of Industrial Economics. Volume 49, Issue 1, pages 1–19, March 2001<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>This paper explores the effects of privatization, competition, and regulation on telecommunications performance in 30 African and Latin American countries from 1984 through 1997. Fixed-effects regressions reveal that competition is correlated with increases in the per capita number of mainlines, payphones, and connection capacity, and with decreases in the price of local calls. Privatization combined with an independent regulator is positively correlated with telecom performance measures. Privatization alone, however, is associated with few benefits, and is negatively correlated with connection capacity.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><div style='border:none;border-left:solid blue 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><div style='border:none;border-left:solid blue 1.5pt;padding:0in 0in 0in 4.0pt'><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>[MG>] I know that is your position Milton, which at that level of ideological pandering/name calling is no different from Kende's argument and we hear it often enough. What I would very much like to see though, is some evidence to back it up. What I'm curious to see, and that was the point of my original note, is some research/analysis which starts not from a definition of "benefits" as dictated by Google, Microsoft, and Uncle Tom digerati and all but rather one which starts from the quite specific policy contexts and dilemmas of the folks in LDC's who seem to be bearing a rather large amount of short term cost in the service of purported long term benefit (and not incidentally alongside rather significant short term benefits adhering to already extremely well provided for DC beneficiaries). And if they don't publicly object I will, not all of those folks or dare I say even most (countering again some ideological and even should I say xenophobic posturing rather than systematic analysis and research on your part) are as you imply, corrupt and despotic. <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>I myself am of two minds on this issue. I well recognize the value/benefits that could flow from Internet access even to the poorest of the poor and the overwhelming benefits that Internet access provides to those for example in civil society who can take advantage of its more or less unlimited free flow of communications and information (including through undermining various repressive political regimes). On the other hand, the unlimited unregulated policy environment advocated by reports like that of Kende and others of that ideological ilk would I think, lead almost directly to a further enrichment of the already stupendously wealthy and overall a signifcant transfer of wealth and benefit from those with the least to those with the most.<o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>[Milton L Mueller] I am glad you are honest about this two-mindedness. Factually, there is just no way around it. The liberalization and deregulation of telecommunications has massively increased access, decreased costs, increased diversity and innovation. <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>[MG>] For some certainly, but I'm wondering who have been the net beneficiaries and whether those who haven't benefited directly have in fact borne some of the cost of those benefits… I don't know, maybe they have, maybe they haven't but neither Kende or you have offered much beyond ideology and bluster in that regard.<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'>The internet never would have happened without it. I know it provides cognitive dissonance for some people, but all you have to do is compare the penetration and price of ICTs before and after liberalization and the contrast will be very, very stark. True, there have been pitfalls here and there, usually due to remnants of monopoly power or not handling the complex transition from monopoly to competition properly, but on the whole the progress has been revolutionary. <o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Courier New";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><b><i><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>[MG>] You are probably right but I would like a bit more evidence than your assertion and I would also like some analysis of the costs involved and also an analysis of how those costs (and benefits) have been and are being distributed and then an analysis of what might be required to ensure that there has been some benefits distributed beyond the usual cast of characters. I know that you and I have benefited but I'm rather less sure about the folks living in Khayalitcha and even less for the cattle herders in Burkina Faso and I mean now not in a never never land future. And as an outcome I'ld like to see an analysis which isn't zero sum (regulation or no regulation) as you seem to suggest is necessary. Rather the question shoud be what sort of regime (without regulation and or with what type of regulation of what elements of the overall Internet technical ecology).<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'>Mike <o:p></o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p><p class=MsoNormal><span style='font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif";color:#1F497D'><o:p> </o:p></span></p></div></div></div></body></html>